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Predictions

Know when each part runs out, on your bike, from your riding

Manufacturer intervals assume an average rider on an average road. Componentry replaces them with a model built from your rides: the climbing, the power, the weather, the distance. Every figure it produces is marked so you can tell a projection from a record.

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Chain · Sunday bike

Example bike
Wear

The prediction leads once it is the strongest signal; the measure is named next to it.

64% · Predictive
Replace by

Shown only within two years. Further out reads 2+ years rather than a guessed date.

18 Mar 2027
Chain power loss

Split into contamination, lubrication state, and stretch. The gap is what a clean, fresh chain gives back.

3.1 W · 2.4 W recoverable
Race day

Every component projected to the date, with the training plan you picked.

Ready · 2-week taper
Prediction tier

Progress toward the next tier is shown so you know what unlocks it.

Advanced · 8 of 10 rides
A component's personalised prediction with its wear factors listed in order of effect.A component's personalised prediction with its wear factors listed in order of effect.

Your distance, your wear

The same distance in the hills wears a drivetrain differently to the flat. Componentry reads every ride's terrain, power, and weather and turns them into a wear rate that is yours, then shows what is multiplying it.

  • A wear rate built from your rides

    Climbing, power, descending, weather, and volume each carry a factor. The list is sorted by effect, so the thing driving wear on your bike is at the top.

  • The headline figure is the strongest signal

    When the model knows more than the manufacturer rating, the prediction leads. The measure behind the figure is always named: Distance, Duration, Time, or Predictive.

  • Web and phone agree

    The same prediction, the same confidence, the same factors on componentry.app and in the app. There is one model, not two.

Good to know. Predictions are marked purple everywhere they appear so a modelled figure is never mistaken for a measured one. Confidence and the model version are shown on every prediction.

A component card leading with its predicted replace-by date and the distance remaining.A component card leading with its predicted replace-by date and the distance remaining.

A date, not a percentage

A wear percentage answers how used a part is. A replace-by date answers the question you actually have. Componentry projects the date from your current rate and keeps it honest about how far it can see.

  • Distance remaining and the date it lands

    Each component shows what is left and when, at your rate, it runs out.

  • Cards lead with the answer

    Prediction cards open collapsed on the figure. Expand one for the provenance: what was measured, what was assumed, and how confident the model is.

  • Refuses false precision

    Sub-watt figures collapse to under one watt and far-off dates round to years. Naming what is not known is part of the model.

Good to know. Dates appear when they fall within two years. Beyond that Componentry shows 2+ years instead of inventing precision it does not have.

The chain power loss band showing total loss and the recoverable share.The chain power loss band showing total loss and the recoverable share.

What your chain is costing you, in watts

A dirty, dry, or stretched chain turns your effort into heat. Componentry models the loss from contamination, lubrication state, and stretch, and separates what a clean, freshly lubricated chain gives back from what only a new chain fixes.

  • Loss and recoverable, side by side

    The band on your bike card shows the total and the share you can get back with a clean and lube. The gap between them is stretch, which only a replacement removes.

  • Wax-aware

    Mark a chain as waxed in a service note or check and the model treats it accordingly. Waxed or lubricated shows on the component list.

  • Sharpened by your service records

    A lubrication reminder and your chain stretch readings feed the model, so the estimate tightens as you record what you do.

Good to know. Works with a connected bike computer, and with Strava-only rides at reduced accuracy. Sub-watt figures read as under one watt. The chip disappears when there is nothing to recover.

Race-day readiness cards for each component on a chosen date.Race-day readiness cards for each component on a chosen date.

Show up race-ready

Pick the date and the plan you are on, and Componentry projects every component to the start line. What will be fine, what will be marginal, and what to replace before the gun goes.

  • Training-plan presets

    Normal, Build, 2-week taper, and 4-week taper change how much riding the model expects between now and the day.

  • Per-component readiness

    Each part gets its own projection on the date, so a chain that is fine and a set of pads that is not are not averaged into one number.

  • Per-profile forecasting

    Race wheels and training wheels wear differently. Pick the profile you will ride and the forecast follows it.

Good to know. Race-day readiness is profile-aware: forecast a specific setup, all of them, or components with no profile. Every readiness card lists what it assumed.

The advanced insights panel showing progress toward the next prediction tier.The advanced insights panel showing progress toward the next prediction tier.

How predictions unlock

The model needs real riding to be worth trusting. Componentry shows you where you are on the way to each tier and what a connected bike computer adds.

  • Progress you can see

    A meter on the dashboard counts the rides toward the next tier and says what it unlocks.

  • Bike computer data goes deeper

    Power, cadence, and terrain from ride files sharpen wear rates and chain power loss beyond what a ride summary can.

  • Strava power counts too

    When a head-unit ride is paired with its Strava copy, the Strava power feeds the chain model.

Good to know. Basic predictions work from synced rides. Advanced insights use ride files from a connected Garmin, Wahoo, or Hammerhead computer, or .FIT uploads.

More of what Componentry does

All features
  • IntegrationsStrava, Garmin, Wahoo, and Hammerhead. Connect once, track forever.
  • Service historyLogs, checks, receipts, and a record for every replaced part.
  • RemindersDistance, time, or ride count. Sorted by how urgent they are.
  • BikesEvery bike's record: setups, purchase, insurance, fit, and odometer.

Questions riders ask

How does Componentry calculate component wear?

Componentry calculates wear using distance, duration, and activity count from your synced rides. Each component type has different wear thresholds based on industry standards — chains, for example, are monitored at 0.5% and 0.75% elongation thresholds as recommended by Park Tool. On top of that baseline, a wear model weights your riding conditions (wet, gravel, road), terrain, and intensity to personalise the estimate to how you ride.

How accurate are the wear predictions?

Wear predictions combine manufacturer recommendations, industry standards, and a model that weights how you actually ride — terrain, intensity, weather exposure, descending, and riding volume across your recent rides. It is a physical model with published inputs rather than a black box, and you can see the per-factor breakdown behind every component's estimate. Accuracy improves as Componentry accumulates more of your rides: predictions stay hidden until there is enough history to be trustworthy, then move through confidence tiers as the picture fills in.

What data does Componentry need to get started?

To get started, you need your bike information (make, model, year) and the components you want to track. Optionally, connect a fitness platform like Strava for automatic activity sync. If you know installation dates or current mileage for components, adding this information provides more accurate wear predictions from day one.

What is a digital twin for a bike?

A digital twin is a virtual model of your bike: every component, its accumulated distance and time, its service history, and its modelled condition. Componentry's is a physical model with published inputs rather than a black box: it accounts for environmental contamination, lubrication state, and chain stretch to estimate drivetrain power loss, and weights component wear by the terrain, weather, and intensity of the rides you actually did. Rather than guessing when parts need attention, it turns rides you have already recorded into a maintenance picture you can act on.

Stop guessing. Start knowing.

Connect your rides and the first predictions arrive as the model learns how you ride.

Get startedSee pricing

Start your 2-month free trial. No credit card required.

Know your bike, down to the individual component. Unlock more from your bike to keep it running at peak performance.

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