Race-Day Readiness

Race-Day Readiness answers a specific question: "Will my components make it to my event, and if not, what do I need to replace first?" You pick an event date, optionally tell Componentry how your training is shaping up, and get a component-by-component readiness report with a clear headline action.

When You Can Use It

Race-Day Readiness unlocks at the Full predictions tier — once you have at least 25 rides from a supported bike computer (see Unlocking Predictions). Projecting confidently to a future date needs more ride history than surfacing a basic personalised estimate, which is why this feature sits behind a higher tier.

Where to Find It

From any bike's detail page, tap Race-Day Readiness. Each bike has its own page — pick the bike you'll actually race on.

[Screenshot placeholder: Race-Day Readiness entry point on the bike detail page]

Using Race-Day Readiness

1. Pick Your Event Date

Use the date picker to select your race or event day. You can project up to a year out. The further out the date, the lower the projection confidence — more on that below.

2. Choose a Training Plan

Most riders don't maintain a constant weekly load in the lead-up to an event. Race-Day Readiness supports four modes:

• Normal — keep current volume. The default. Projects your recent riding forward unchanged.
• Build — +20% volume. A training block where you ride 20% more than usual. Use if you're ramping up for the event.
• Two-week taper. Normal volume, then drop to 50% for the last two weeks.
• Four-week taper. Normal volume, then drop to 50% for the last four weeks.

Pick whichever matches your plan. If you're unsure, leave it on Normal — the projection will refresh every time a new ride syncs, so you can revisit closer to the event.

3. Click Project

Componentry runs the projection and returns a readiness dashboard within seconds. The page also refreshes automatically any time you open it, using your latest ride data.

[Screenshot placeholder: Race-Day Readiness controls with date picker and training plan preset]

Reading the Readiness Dashboard

The Headline

At the top, Race-Day Readiness gives you a single prioritised action — what to do first. Examples:

• "Every component is projected to be race-ready for 15 June."
• "Replace your chain before 15 June. Everything else looks good."
• "Replace chain and rear tyre before 15 June."
• "Multiple components overdue by 15 June: chain, cassette, rear brake pads. Replace before the race."

This is usually the only thing you need to read. Everything else is supporting detail.

Summary Counts

Below the headline, four counts summarise the projection:

• Good — projected wear is comfortably under the threshold. No action needed.
• Monitor — projected to be on the boundary. Keep an eye on it in the lead-up; consider replacing if the event is critical.
• Replace before — projected to be at or near end-of-life on race day. Replace beforehand.
• Overdue — projected to be past end-of-life by race day. This component will likely need replacing during your training block, not just before the race.

Component Readiness List

Each component appears as a card showing:

• Current wear percentage today
• Projected wear percentage on race day
• Remaining distance expected on race day
• A Replace by date for any component in Replace before or Overdue status
• A confidence score for the projection
• A one-line recommendation tailored to the component's status

Cards are sorted by urgency — overdue first, then replace-before, then monitor, then good.

[Screenshot placeholder: Readiness dashboard showing the headline, summary counts, and individual component cards]

Projection Confidence

Confidence decays the further out your event is. This is honest framing, not a hedge:

• 0–4 weeks out — high confidence. Your recent riding is a strong predictor.
• 4–8 weeks out — moderate confidence. Room for seasonal shifts, illness, or travel to change the picture.
• 8–16 weeks out — lower confidence. Useful directional guidance with caveats.
• 16+ weeks out — treat as rough planning. The page will flag this clearly.

Each component's card shows its own confidence number. Re-running the projection closer to the event always tightens things up.

What We Assumed

Below the readiness list, the What we assumed panel shows the inputs behind the projection:

• Your weekly distance (averaged from recent rides)
• The volume modifier and taper from your selected training plan
• Expected weather conditions for the period ahead
• Your current ride count on record

If any of these look wrong — for example, the weekly distance is much lower than what you'll actually ride leading into the race — you can adjust the training plan preset to compensate, or simply re-run the projection after another week or two of riding.

[Screenshot placeholder: The "What we assumed" panel showing weekly distance, volume modifier, taper, weather, and rides on record]

How Race-Day Readiness Refreshes

You don't need to re-run the projection manually. Each time you open the page, Componentry re-projects against your latest rides — so a big training weekend, a wet week, or an easier rest week will all be reflected the next time you visit.

If you change the training plan preset or the event date, click Project to recalculate with the new inputs.

Tips for Using Race-Day Readiness

• Check it early. Running the projection 8–12 weeks out gives you time to order parts and schedule service, even if confidence is lower at that range.
• Re-run closer to the event. A projection at 4 weeks out will be noticeably sharper than the same one at 12 weeks out.
• Match the training plan to your real plan. If you're about to start a four-week build, select Build. If you're tapering, select the taper preset. The projection is only as good as the plan you give it.
• Trust the headline. It's designed to give you the single most important action. If it says "Everything else looks good", you can stop reading and get on with your training.
• Use it for any event, not just races. Long tours, multi-day trips, gran fondos, and gravel events all benefit from the same planning.

What It Doesn't Do

• It doesn't predict mechanical failures. Snapped spokes, blown bearings, and similar events are out of scope — this is a wear-based projection.
• It doesn't buy parts for you. Replacement recommendations are informational.
• It doesn't account for service events you haven't logged yet. If you replaced a chain but didn't record it in Componentry, the projection still thinks it's the old one. Logging replacements keeps the projection honest.

Supported Components

Race-Day Readiness uses the same prediction engine as component pages, so the same set of components is covered — chains, cassettes, brake pads, brake rotors and calipers, tyres and tubes, cables, chainrings, derailleurs, cranks and pedals, wheel rims and discs, suspension, and fluids. Components without personalised predictions (bar tape, grips, and similar) are noted on the page.

Race-Day Readiness is the most concrete use of Componentry's predictions: a single page that tells you what to replace before your event, and what to leave alone. Combined with the component-level predictions and the wear-factor breakdown, it closes the loop from how you ride to what you need to do next.