Unlocking Predictions

Personalised predictions don't appear immediately — they unlock in tiers as you log rides with a supported bike computer. This page explains what you need to connect, how the tiers work, and what you'll see at each stage.

Why a Bike Computer is Required

Predictions are built from detailed ride data — things like power, cadence, granular elevation, and per-second streams — that only appear in FIT files produced by a dedicated bike computer. Strava's activity sync is great for identifying your rides and matching them to the right bike, but it doesn't expose the granular data predictions need.

That means predictions are powered by rides that come from:

• Wahoo
• Garmin
• Hammerhead

You can still use Componentry without a bike computer — distance, duration, and time-based wear tracking all work with Strava alone. Only personalised predictions require a FIT-capable provider.

[Screenshot placeholder: Apps page showing the Advanced Insights card for a Strava-only user]

Connecting a Bike Computer

Connect Wahoo, Garmin, or Hammerhead from the Apps page. Once connected, any rides you've already logged with that provider become available for prediction, and new rides are picked up automatically as they sync.

If you've been using Strava alone and pair a bike computer later, you can re-import your historical rides from that provider to grow your ride count faster. Existing Strava rides won't be enriched retroactively — only rides sourced from a FIT provider count toward prediction tiers.

Ride Count Tiers

Predictions unlock in four stages, based on the number of rides Componentry has on record from a supported bike computer:

0–9 rides — Predictions not yet available

The component view continues to show manufacturer-linear wear bars. You'll see an Unlock advanced insights card with your progress toward the first tier. No personalised numbers appear yet — with this little data, any prediction would just be a restated population average.

10–24 rides — Early estimates

Personalised predictions appear on eligible components. Each one is labelled Early estimate to make clear that the numbers will sharpen as you ride. You'll see:

• Distance remaining and a predicted replacement date
• Adjusted lifespan alongside the manufacturer lifespan
• The "What's driving wear" breakdown
• A confidence score

Race-Day Readiness is still locked at this stage — a projection that far out needs more history behind it.

25–49 rides — Full predictions

The full feature set unlocks, including Race-Day Readiness. Predictions are still labelled with a confidence score, and you'll see how many rides the estimate is based on.

50+ rides — High confidence

The caveats drop off. Predictions are calibrated enough to present without early-estimate framing, and confidence scores reach their full range.

[Screenshot placeholder: Advanced Insights card showing tier progress and the current ride count]

When the Tier Changes

Tier transitions happen automatically. As soon as a new ride pushes you across a threshold, predictions update on your next component view. You don't need to refresh anything manually.

If you remove a provider or a ride, predictions adjust accordingly. Predictions are always based on the current set of rides Componentry has on record.

What Counts as a Ride

Only rides backed by a FIT file from Wahoo, Garmin, or Hammerhead count toward the tier thresholds. Rides imported from Strava alone, manual activities, and indoor trainer sessions without power data don't contribute to tier progress — though indoor rides on a smart trainer with power are included.

You can see your current ride count on the Advanced Insights card on the Apps page.

What If I Have Multiple Bikes?

Ride counts are aggregated across your account — you don't need to hit the thresholds separately per bike. However, predictions themselves are per-bike: a chain on your gravel bike is estimated against that bike's terrain, weather, and power profile, not your road bike's.

Rides matched to the correct bike (usually via a linked device — see Devices) flow into that bike's prediction model. If rides aren't matching to the right bike, predictions for that bike will lag or look off.

Troubleshooting

My ride count isn't going up after I paired a bike computer. New rides need to sync from the provider first. If they haven't appeared within a few minutes of a ride, check that the provider is still connected on the Apps page and that the ride has uploaded from your head unit. Historical rides can also be re-imported from the provider to add them to your count.

I paired a bike computer but predictions still say "Unlock advanced insights". You need at least 10 rides from a FIT-capable provider before the first tier unlocks. Check your ride count on the Advanced Insights card.

I see "Early estimate" even though I have lots of rides. Components have different confidence profiles. If you've just added a component, its prediction may start as an early estimate until enough rides have accrued against that specific component's lifecycle on that bike.

The next sections explain each part of the personalised prediction in more detail.