Personalised Wear Predictions
Read the Personalised Prediction card and the predictive wear figure on a component.
Once predictions are unlocked (see Unlocking predictions), supported components get a personalised prediction: how far this part will really last on your bike, given how you ride.
Open a prediction
- Open Bikes and pick the bike.
- In the Components card, look for the sparkles badge next to a component's name.
- Click the eye button on that row.
At the top of the panel, Replace by gives the predicted replacement date when it falls within the next two years. Below it, the Predictive bar plots the distance ridden against your personalised lifespan, next to the manufacturer's Distance, Duration and Time bars.
The Personalised Prediction card
The card opens collapsed, showing the two figures most riders want:
- Distance remaining: how much further the component should last on this bike.
- Vs manufacturer: how its predicted life compares with the manufacturer's rating: a percentage shorter or longer, or On par.
Click the card to expand it:
- Predicted replace by: the date you'll reach the end of its life at your recent riding rate, or 2+ years when it's further out.
- Adjusted lifespan: the total distance the part should last for you.
- What's driving wear: the parts of your riding wearing it faster than average. See Wear factors.
- Confidence: how much data sits behind the estimate. It rises as you log more bike computer rides.
While you're at the Early estimate stage, the card carries an Early estimate badge. Treat those numbers as a guide to which parts are wearing fast rather than a date to plan around.
How the prediction feeds the wear figure
A component's wear figure is normally the highest of its distance, duration and time wear. With a prediction, the predicted lifespan takes the place of the manufacturer's distance limit. Duration and time limits still apply, and whichever is highest wins.
The Wear Status heading says which measure is driving it, for example "using Predictive". The component list shows the same figure, and the percentage turns purple when the prediction is the one in charge.
Why the date moves
The predicted date uses your recent riding volume. A big training block brings it closer, and a quiet spell pushes it out. The distance remaining and adjusted lifespan move less, because they depend on how you ride rather than how often.
Predictions refresh on their own as new rides come in and whenever you add or edit a component on the bike.
Components without a prediction
- Unsupported types, such as the frame, saddle, bar tape or batteries, show "Personalised predictions aren't available for this component type" in their detail panel and keep standard wear tracking.
- Components on a bike with too few recent rides may show no replacement date until there's enough recent riding to work out a rate.
Replacing a part
When a part is replaced in a service log, its replacement starts its own prediction from zero, based on the same riding profile.
The mobile app shows the same Personalised Prediction card on its component screen.